Batfink's Beep -- 1-16-06

They wouldn't lie to us, would they?

January 16, 2006

Pakistan's government is up in arms over the recent airstrike that apparently killed more than a dozen people suspected of hosting Al Qaida #2 man Ayman Zawahiri. The official government line is that Mr. Z was not there at the time, and that those killed were innocent. Taking the second part first, it is certainly possible, even likely, that some of the killed, at least, were innocent of terrorist activities. But what of the first part? Might this be a lie for internal Pakistani consumption? Might Zawahiri really be carrion?

The locals certainly deny it with great gusto: 'This is a big lie... Only our family members died in the attack,' said one Shah Zaman, a jeweller who claims to have lost two sons and a daughter in the attack. 'They dropped bombs from planes and we were in no position to stop them... or to tell them we are innocent. I don't know [al-Zawahiri]. He was not at my home. No foreigner was at my home when the planes came and dropped bombs.' But what do you expect him to say, that he did indeed host the Al Qaida leader? That wouldn't bring the dead, whoever they may be, back to life, and would paint a target on his own forehead.

The CIA is following through on DNA tests to see if we might have gotten our man, so it is clear that they do not consider the Pakistani claim conclusive. Well, that's as it should be, of course -- trust but verify, after all. And they might just plain not know what they're talking about (the government, anyway; not the local jeweler.) We have to be sure.

The speculation has been getting floated in the media that perhaps, many Pakistanis having terrorist sympathies, the Musharraf government is trying to prevent riots that could result if the word got out there that Zawahiri was indeed blown to bits. This is one possible motive, anyway, and the most benign one, both because we don't wish massive civil unrest on a nominal ally, as well as because, as mentioned before, we will know the truth soon enough, one way or the other. But they have, as a result, near riots anyway, with thousands of Pakistanis taking to the street to shout "Death to America" on account of the 'innocent' dead.

Now, maybe Mr. Musharraf did indeed make the calculation that things would be worse if the mission were known to be a success. And he might be right, if he did. He knows the sympathies of his people better than we do. But after all, word will eventually get out if we got our man, and those riots would happen anyway. He'd be just buying a little time to prepare, at our expense.

A more troubling possibility, of course, is that the Pakistani president shares the sympathies of his people, and was hoping he could convince us, with a show of anger, not to find out how we did. That would be a shame, of course. But whether or not we give him the benefit of the doubt for his motives, the fact remains that we can't take his claims at face value. The long and short is, we can't be sure if we got Ayman Z. yet. We will have to go ahead with the tests, and in the mean time, keep a good thought.

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Revised: 05/19/08 08:07:04 -0400 .